Johannesburg – The return of sweeping US tariffs under Donald Trump’s renewed economic nationalism has redefined the rules of global trade. For South African businesses, particularly those participating in global supply chains or dependent on export markets, the risks are no longer speculative. Riskonet Africa, a leading local risk management consultancy, warns that the ripple effects from these tariff moves will be profound and immediate.
In response, South Africa’s risk community is being urged to act now. Companies must urgently reassess their exposure, anticipate cascading effects across sectors, and adapt their strategies to maintain competitiveness and resilience.
The call to action is clear: build strategic agility, deepen scenario planning, and confront uncomfortable assumptions head-on. The time for passive observation is over. What is required now is a proactive and coordinated risk response.
Volker von Widdern, Strategic Risk Principal at Riskonet Africa, says the dramatic escalation of trade barriers by the United States is a defining global event that underscores how vulnerable traditional business models have become in a world shaped by geopolitics rather than economics. “It’s important to remember that countries don’t trade with each other, businesses do, in context of the respective tariff policies. And businesses in South Africa are about to feel the full weight of these decisions,” he says. “We are looking at a systemic shift, not a temporary disruption.”
The tariffs – a 31% blanket duty imposed on imports from South Africa – are not just symbolic. They mark a deeper decoupling of trade alliances and a rollback of decades of liberal trade policy. The impact on South Africa’s economy is already being forecast as a 2% GDP contraction, on par with China’s projected losses and double that of the European Union. But von Widdern cautions that the secondary effects may be even more damaging than the immediate numbers suggest.
“South African exports often serve as inputs into goods manufactured elsewhere for the US market, automotive components, raw minerals, Agri-processed items,” he explains. “When those goods are caught in the tariff crossfire, the entire supply chain recoils. The threat isn’t just to finished exports heading to American shores, but to the underlying logic of our industrial participation in global trade.”
What makes this especially concerning is that the risk was foreseeable. Trump’s protectionist instincts have been clear since his first campaign. And yet, many organisations are only now grappling with the implications, a lag von Widdern attributes to a dangerous form of wilful blindness in traditional risk assessments and the “maak ‘n plan” approach of many management teams.
“This is why scenario planning must become a core discipline within all organisations,” he says. “It’s not enough to hope for continuity or to default to optimism. We are operating in a VUCA world – volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous. Resilience today must be defined not by an ability to withstand a storm, but by the agility to reroute entirely when the map itself is torn apart.”
Von Widdern is adamant that resilience can no longer be confined to classical categories such as natural perils or internal operational risk. The nature of resilience has expanded. It now includes the ability to navigate international regulatory upheaval, political instability in key markets, and unpredictable shifts in commercial regimes.
To do so, companies must urgently build internal capacity to monitor geopolitical developments, re-evaluate global supply chain exposures, and model alternative scenarios, not just for survival, but for strategic positioning. “We’re calling on the risk community to be more than a back-office function,” he says. “Risk management must sit at the executive table, actively shaping the strategy that will carry companies through the next decade.”
For example, the Rosslyn and Eastern Cape motor industry hubs could be classified as special economic zones with exemptions from tariffs and BEE regulations, as well as commitments to stability on energy and labour arrangements. This would change the attractiveness of the motor industry substantially. Similar initiatives could target the ports, railways, agriculture and tourism sectors.”
At Riskonet Africa, the advisory team is collaborating with clients across multiple sectors – from industrial exporters and miners to logistics providers and financial institutions – to map strategic options, diversify markets, and ensure that capital deployment is anchored in stable, long-term principles. “Strategic agility is not just a buzzword,” von Widdern says. “It’s the currency of survival in this new global order.”
